Jacksonville, Fl. — The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.
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REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *NOT* helpful & will not keep glass from breaking.
Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or damage that might occur.
** No tropical systems will impact Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. through at least Labor Day.... **
A lead wave - ‘91-L’ - came off the coast of Africa late last week & was upgraded to tropical storm Earl Friday evening. Indications are that Earl will turn northward well to the east of the U.S. through next week. There may be an increase in swells + a heightened rip current risk next week from Fl. to Chesapeake Bay depending on the exact location & strength of the system. Though disorganized, satellite imagery does show some banding features/structure & outflow over the top appears to be developing.
The GFS model is faster to turn this wave northward because the model more quickly develops a stronger &, therefore, deeper system while the European model is more west & slower with a weaker system but still eventually turns Earl to the north. Either way it appears the turn north will early enough to keep the center north of Puerto Rico & well east of the Florida & Bahamas. Tropical storm force winds - on this forecast track - would stay north of Puerto Rico & nearby islands but the area will still see some heavy squalls. The turn more north then eventually northeast should spare Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. & the eastern U.S. seaboard any significant impacts as it stands now. *However* - by next weekend into early the following week, there remain questions as to just how simple the “end game” is for Earl - out to sea or a turn more north or even west. The GFS is emphatic that Earl turns sharply northeast as a hurricane while the European is not as intense & shows a more northward/poleward move over the W. Atlantic. Neither solution would explicitly show a threat to the east coast of the U.S. *but* if the next trough of low pressure next week misses Earl then we’ll have to see how steering currents evolve & how the next trough interacts in the long term - a good 7-10 days away. Shear will decrease in the coming days & conditions generally appear favorable for strengthening in the long run & Earl could eventually “go” hurricane.
In any case, no real significant impacts for the Caribbean Islands it would appear... nor Bahamas or Florida outside of some rough surf & a higher rip current risk depending - again - on the exact location & intensity of Earl. There could be an eventual threat to Bermuda.
Tropical depression #5 formed early Thu. & was upgraded to tropical storm “Danielle” later in the morning then to a hurricane Fri. morning - the first of the Atlantic season well past the avg. 1st hurricane date of Aug. 11th... then back to a tropical storm early Sat. Danielle is over the middle of the N. Atlantic hundreds of miles E/NE of Bermuda & well west of the Azore Islands. The storm is essentially “stuck” over the N. Atlantic & won’t move a lot through the weekend with intensity leveling off some due to upwelling now & less favorable overall conditions next week. An upper level trough moving over the NW Atlantic next week should eventually pick up the system steering Danielle to the northeast over open water.
Meanwhile... a couple of active tropical waves are over the far E. Atlantic with some gradual development possible.
The MJO continues to evolve. In simplest terms: the green lines on the map below indicate “rising” air & *can* be more conducive for the development of tropical systems. The brown lines indicate “sinking” air which is generally less favorable. Sinking air (brown lines) has spread over the much of the Central & E. Pacific indicating generally less favorable conditions for tropical cyclones while rising air is over the Indian Ocean & W. Pacific (where 3 tropical cyclones have developed during the last 10 days) & is now spreading over a good portion of the Atlantic. A continued transition to rising air across the Atlantic is forecast as we get deeper into Sept.
So time will tell & - in the end - just how significant the next few weeks might be from a tropical standpoint will be dictated by where any tropical systems go... if there are landfalls... & then how strong the system is or isn’t. Either way, it’s time to be vigilant & prepared as we reach the peak of the hurricane season Sept. 10.
Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin through September. This season so far is well below avg.:
Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, we’ve had several large dust plumes spread west to the Caribbean & Gulf with the peak of Saharan dust typically in June & July.
2022 names..... “Danielle” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20 & Ida in ‘21]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous with “Charley”, “Frances”, “Jeanne” & “Ivan” retired from the ‘04 list (all hit Fl.) & “Matthew” was retired in 2016. The WMO decided - beginning last year - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
GFS wave forecast at 48 & 72 hours (2 & 3 days):
Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:
Updated Atlantic seasonal forecast from early Aug. - NOAA & CSU:
Javier has developed & will stay out to sea but has the potential to bring some heavy rain & gusty winds + rough seas/surf to the Baja of California as the tropical cyclone “peals” away to the northwest then west.
Another disturbance should develop into a tropical cyclone several hundred miles to the southeast of Javier off the coast of Mexico & could threaten parts of the west coast of Mexico & the Baja by late in the week/next weekend.
Typhoon “Hinnamnor” (a super typhoon at times) is expected to stall while turning sharply northward while staying east of Taiwan & south of most of Japan - except for some of the far southern islands. The typhoon will start to accelerate to the north/northeast during the early to middle part of next week potentially impacting South Korea.
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